The environments in which ambient agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, for example in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper an ambient agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the environment. Moreover, it does so in an adaptive manner by adjusting the parameter values in the environment model that represent believed environmental characteristics, thus adapting these beliefs to the real characteristics of the environment.