We report on a study of topic dynamics for pages visited by a sample of people using MSN Search. We examine the predictive accuracies of probabilistic models of topic transitions for individuals and groups of users. We explore temporal dynamics by comparing the accuracy of the models for predicting topic transitions at increasingly distant times in the future. Finally, we discuss directions for applying models of search topic dynamics. Categories and Subject Descriptors H.3 Information Storage and Retrieval General Terms Algorithms, Measurement, Experimentation. Keywords Web search, topic analysis, user modeling, topic transition
Xuehua Shen, Susan T. Dumais, Eric Horvitz