The ultimate goal when building dialogue systems is to satisfy the needs of real users, but quality assurance for dialogue strategies is a non-trivial problem. The applied evaluation metrics and resulting design principles are often obscure, emerge by trial-and-error, and are highly context dependent. This paper introduces data-driven methods for obtaining reliable objective functions for system design. In particular, we test whether an objective function obtained from Wizard-of-Oz (WOZ) data is a valid estimate of real users' preferences. We test this in a test-retest comparison between the model obtained from the WOZ study and the models obtained when testing with real users. We can show that, despite a low fit to the initial data, the objective function obtained from WOZ data makes accurate predictions for automatic dialogue evaluation, and, when automatically optimising a policy using these predictions, the improvement over a strategy simply mimicking the data becomes clear f...