— In autonomic provisioning, a resource manager allocates resources to an application, on-demand, e.g., during load spikes. Modelling-based approaches have proved very successful for provisioning the web and application server tiers in dynamic content servers. On the other hand, accurately modelling the behavior of the back-end database server tier is a daunting task. Hence, automated provisioning of database replicas has received comparatively less attention. This paper introduces a novel pro-active scheme based on the classic K-nearest-neighbors (KNN) machine learning approach for adding database replicas to application allocations in dynamic content web server clusters. Our KNN algorithm uses lightweight monitoring of essential system and application metrics in order to decide how many databases it should allocate to a given workload. Our pro-active algorithm also incorporates awareness of system stabilization periods after adaptation in order to improve prediction accuracy and av...