In this paper, we raise a methodological issue concerning the empirical analysis of tutoring dialogues: The frequencies of tutoring moves do not necessarily reveal their causal efficacy. We propose to develop coding schemes that are better informed by theories of learning; stop equating higher frequencies of tutoring moves with effectiveness; and replace ANOVAs and chi-squares with multiple regression. As motivation for our proposal, we will present an initial analysis of tutoring dialogues, in the domain of introductory Computer Science. Keywords. Tutoring dialogues, annotation, multiple regression