Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts

We introduce branching process models in discrete and continuous time for the exponentially increasing phase of cascading blackouts. Cumulative line trips from real blackout data have portions consistent with these branching process models. Some initial calculations identifying parameters and using a branching process model to estimate blackout probabilities are illustrated.

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2005
• Where: HICSS
• Authors: Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman
• Keywords: Biometrics, Branching Process Model, Exponentially Increasing, HICSS 2005, Real Blackout Data, System Sciences