A First Step towards an Epistemology of the Subjective Uncertainty: Its Premises and Modeling

The uncertainty may be divides it into two major groups, "objective uncertainty" and "subjective uncertainty". The objective uncertainty has already been extensively explored in works on classic probability, but this is not the case with subjective uncertainty, a field of knowledge where there is not even a well established epistemology. In this work we show a first step towards an epistemology of the subjective uncertainty, its premises, and also a way to model them. If a system fails to model all the premises it will not be able to generically model the subjective uncertainty. This is what happens, for example, with the rules of combination until now used within the Dempster-Shafer Theory, one of the formal models that deals with subjective uncertainty. The Dempster-Shafer Theory provides a method for combining evidence from different sources without prior knowledge of their distributions, however, it has some pitfalls caused by an incomplete modeling of the prem...

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2007
• Where: FSKD
• Authors: Fabio Campos, Andre Neves, R. Souza
• Keywords: Dempster-Shafer Theory, FSKD 2007, Fuzzy Logic, Objective Uncertainty, Subjective Uncertainty