Instance Ranking using Ensemble Spread

- This paper investigates a technique for predicting ensemble uncertainty originally proposed in the weather forecasting domain. The overall purpose is to find out if the technique can be modified to operate on a wider range of regression problems. The main difference, when moving outside the weather forecasting domain, is the lack of extensive statistical knowledge readily available for weather forecasting. In this study, three different modifications are suggested to the original technique. In the experiments, the modifications are compared to each other and to two straightforward techniques, using ten publicly available regression problems. Three of the techniques show promising result, especially one modification based on genetic algorithms. The suggested modification can accurately determine whether the confidence in ensemble predictions should be high or low.

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2007
• Where: DMIN
• Authors: Rikard König, Ulf Johansson, Lars Niklasson
• Keywords: Data Mining, DMIN 2007, Ensemble Uncertainty, Regression Problems, Weather Forecasting Domain