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IJIS
2006

Optimal choice of granularity in commonsense estimation: Why half-orders of magnitude?

13 years 11 months ago
Optimal choice of granularity in commonsense estimation: Why half-orders of magnitude?
It has been observed that when people make crude estimates, they feel comfortable choosing between alternatives which differ by a half-order of magnitude (e.g., were there 100, 300, or 1,000 people in the crowd), and less comfortable making a choice on a more detailed scale, with finer granules, or on a coarser scale (like 100 or 1,000). In this paper, we describe two models of choosing granularity in commonsense estimates, and we show that for both models, in the optimal granularity, the next estimate is 3-4 times larger than the previous one. Thus, these two optimization results explain the commonsense granularity.
Jerry R. Hobbs, Vladik Kreinovich
Added 12 Dec 2010
Updated 12 Dec 2010
Type Journal
Year 2006
Where IJIS
Authors Jerry R. Hobbs, Vladik Kreinovich
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