This paper presents a model and an analysis done to predict enemy force closure. The simulation replaces a pencil and ruler method that has been used by Department of Defense planners for over a century. More importantly, the model provides planners with the capability to assess previously "impossible to quantify," yet critical, factors: transportation network constraints, equipment reliability and maintainability, varying task times, nighttime operations, and the effects of air interdiction. War planning implications are discussed and notional results are presented.
Mark R. Grabau, Michael D. Payne