Performance modeling for scientific applications is important for assessing potential application performance and systems procurement in high-performance computing (HPC). Recent progress on communication tracing opens up novel opportunities for communication modeling due to its lossless yet scalable trace collection. Estimating the impact of scaling on communication efficiency still remains non-trivial due to execution-time variations and exposure to hardware and software artifacts. This work contributes a fundamentally novel modeling scheme. We synthetically generate the application trace for large numbers of nodes by extrapolation from a set of smaller traces. We devise an innovative approach for topology extrapolation of single program, multiple data (SPMD) codes with stencil or mesh communication. The extrapolated trace can subsequently be (a) replayed to assess communication requirements before porting an application, (b) transformed to auto-generate communication benchmarks fo...