Contextual advertising (also called content match) refers to the placement of small textual ads within the content of a generic web page. It has become a significant source of revenue for publishers ranging from individual bloggers to major newspapers. At the same time it is an important way for advertisers to reach their intended audience. This reach depends on the total number of exposures of the ad (impressions) and its click-through-rate (CTR) that can be viewed as the probability of an end-user clicking on the ad when shown. These two orthogonal, critical factors are both difficult to estimate and even individually can still be very informative and useful in planning and budgeting advertising campaigns. In this paper, we address the problem of forecasting the number of impressions for new or changed ads in the system. Producing such forecasts, even within large margins of error, is quite challenging: 1) ad selection in contextual advertising is a complicated process based on tens...
Xuerui Wang, Andrei Z. Broder, Marcus Fontoura, Va