An unlikely result

What happens to a dictator once he is out of power is not just a matter of justice or a random result. Using game theory we show that post-power scenarios depend largely on two factors: the strength of the outgoing regime and the international context. Both the theory and the data gathered show that judicial accountability is an unlikely result. With regard to the institutional arrangements, the results show that rulers with fully institutionalized regimes are those who will face a higher probability some kind of punishment once deposed. A higher proportion of democracies in the world is related with a lower probability of judicial accountability in the short term at least. On the other hand, possible strategic considerations by the opposition forces may determine the fact that the more dictatorships exist in the region, the lower the probabilities of exile and the higher those of imprisonment or assassination. Paper prepared for presentation at the ECPR First Graduate Conference, Univ...

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2006
• Where: CORR
• Authors: A. N. Other
• Keywords: CORR 2006, Education, Judicial Accountability, Outgoing Regime, Post-power Scenarios