Validation of regression metamodels in simulation: Bootstrap approach

Simulation experiments are often analyzed through a linear regression model of their input/output data. Such an analysis yields a metamodel or response surface for the underlying simulation model. This metamodel can be validated through various statistics; this article studies (1) the coefficient of determination (R-square) for generalized least squares, and (2) a lack-of-fit F-statistic originally formulated by Rao [Biometrika 46 (1959) 49], who assumed multivariate normality. To derive the distributions of these two validation statistics, this paper shows how to apply bootstrapping--without assuming normality. To illustrate the performance of these bootstrapped validation statistics, the paper uses Monte Carlo experiments with simple models. For these models (i) R-square is a conservative statistic (rejecting a valid metamodel relatively rarely), so its power is low; (ii) Rao

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2006
• Where: EOR
• Authors: Jack P. C. Kleijnen, David Deflandre
• Keywords: EOR 2006, Linear Regression Model, Statistic, Validation Statistics