Will Moore's Law Be Sufficient?

—It seems well understood that supercomputer simulation is an enabler for scientific discoveries, weapons, and other activities of value to society. It also seems widely believed that Moore’s Law will make progressively more powerful supercomputers over time and thus enable more of these contributions. This paper seeks to add detail to these arguments, revealing them to be generally correct but not a smooth and effortless progression. This paper will review some key problems that can be solved with supercomputer simulation, showing that more powerful supercomputers will be useful up to a very high yet finite limit of around 1021 FLOPS (1 Zettaflops). The review will also show the basic nature of these extreme problems. This paper will review work by others showing that the theoretical maximum supercomputer power is very high indeed, but will explain how a straightforward extrapolation of Moore’s Law will lead to technological maturity in a few decades. The power of a supercompute...

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2004
• Where: SC
• Authors: Erik DeBenedictis
• Keywords: Applied Computing, Moore’s Law, SC 2004, Supercomputer Simulation, Supercomputers