We examine a general Bayesian framework for constructing on-line prediction algorithms in the experts setting. These algorithms predict the bits of an unknown Boolean sequence usin...
Context trees are a popular and effective tool for tasks such as compression, sequential prediction, and language modeling. We present an algebraic perspective of context trees for...
Harald Ganzinger, Robert Nieuwenhuis, Pilar Nivela
We study the problem of designing prediction markets for random variables with continuous or countably infinite outcomes on the real line. Our interval betting languages allow tra...
The notion of algorithmic stability has been used effectively in the past to derive tight generalization bounds. A key advantage of these bounds is that they are designed for spec...
Ensuring sufficient liquidity is one of the key challenges for designers of prediction markets. Various market making algorithms have been proposed in the literature and deployed ...