39 search results - page 1 / 8 » Improving aggregated forecasts of probability |
CISS
2011
IEEE
13 years 2 months ago
2011
IEEE
—The Coherent Approximation Principle (CAP) is a method for aggregating forecasts of probability from a group of judges by enforcing coherence with minimal adjustment. This paper...
CORR
2006
Springer
13 years 11 months ago
2006
Springer
- In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggrega...
ECAI
2006
Springer
14 years 26 days ago
2006
Springer
Abstract. In this paper, we show that the optimization of density forecasting models for regression in machine learning can be formulated as a multi-objective problem. We describe ...
SBP
2010
Springer
14 years 5 months ago
2010
Springer
Abstract. A body of psychological research has examined the correspondence between a judge’s subjective probability of an event’s outcome and the event’s actual outcome. The ...
ALT
2007
Springer
14 years 7 months ago
2007
Springer
It has been recently shown that calibration with an error less than ∆ > 0 is almost surely guaranteed with a randomized forecasting algorithm, where forecasts are obtained by...