Recent years have seen extensive investigation of the information aggregation properties of prediction markets. However, relatively little is known about conditions under which a ...
Krishnamurthy Iyer, Ramesh Johari, Ciamac Cyrus Mo...
Abstract. Most existing market maker mechanisms for prediction markets are designed for events with a finite number of outcomes. All known attempts on designing market makers for f...
Media reporting shapes public opinion which can in turn influence events, particularly in political elections, in which candidates both respond to and shape public perception of t...
Kevin Lerman, Ari Gilder, Mark Dredze, Fernando Pe...
This paper describes problem of prediction that is based on direct marketing data coming from Nationwide Products and Services Questionnaire (NPSQ) prepared by Polish division of A...
Jerzy Blaszczynski, Krzysztof Dembczynski, Wojciec...
A potential downside of prediction markets is that they may incentivize agents to take undesirable actions in the real world. For example, a prediction market for whether a terrori...