Bayesian Boxes: A Colored Calculator for Picturing Posteriors

The need for Bayesian inference arises in military intelligence, medical diagnosis and many other practical applications. The problem is that human inferences are generally conservative by Bayesian standards, i.e., people fail to extract all the certainty they should from the data they are given. Here I present a diagram called “Bayesian Boxes” designed to correct conservatism. The diagram uses colored lines and boxes to illustrate the Bayesian posterior and the underlying principle. Compared to other diagrams, Bayesian Boxes is novel in illustrating the conceptual features (e.g., hypotheses and evidence) and computational structure (e.g., products and ratio) of Bayesian inference. 1 Cognitive Conservatism Assume that you hold a Poker hand of 4 Kings and 1 Queen. Blindfolded, you randomly select one card from this hand. I then roll a fair die. If the die shows a number between 1 and 4, I will tell the truth; if the die shows 5 or 6, I will tell a lie. After rolling the die, I look ...

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2004
• Where: DIAGRAMS
• Authors: Kevin Burns
• Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Bayesian Boxes, Bayesian Inference, Card, DIAGRAMS 2004