Caveats for Causal Reasoning with Equilibrium Models

In this paper we examine the ability to perform causal reasoning with equilibrium models. We explicate a postulate, which we term the Manipulation Postulate, that is required in order to perform causal inference, and we prove that there exists a general class of recursive equilibrium models that are guaranteed to violate the Manipulation Postulate. In addition, we show that all models in this class possess a set of variables V whose manipulation will cause an instability such that no equilibrium model will exist for the system. We define the Structural Stability Principle which provides a graphical criterion for stability in causal models. Our theorems suggest that caution should be exercised when applying causal reasoning to equilibrium models or to models learned from databases wherein features were not measured simultaneously.

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2001
• Where: ECSQARU
• Authors: Denver Dash, Marek J. Druzdzel
• Keywords: Automated Reasoning, Causal, Causal Reasoning, ECSQARU 2001, Equilibrium Models