Reasoning About Hidden Mechanisms

1 describe an approach to the problem of forming hypotheses about hidden mechanisms w; thin devices — the "black box" problem for physical systems. The approach involves enumerating a set of physical and causal conslrainLs and enumerating difference causal structures for devices, placing an ordering on these hypothesis types, and carefully controlling the generation of hypotheses. I relate in detail the performance of an implemented causal modeling system on the surprisingly puzzling pocket tire gauge. Results from several examples indicate that the ideas presented support capabilities for maintaining manageably sized hypothesis sets and for making fine distinctions among hypotheses.

• Type: Conference
• Year: 1989
• Where: IJCAI
• Authors: Richard J. Doyle
• Keywords: Causal, Difference Causal Structures, IJCAI 1989, IJCAI 2007, Implemented Causal Modeling