Comparing Risk Neutral Density Estimation Methods using Simulated Option Data

Abstract—In this paper I use Monte Carlo simulated option data to investigate the empirical power of six Risk Neutral Density (RND) estimation techniques. Three alternative approaches are used for comparison and the choice of the most suitable method depends on: their performance to correctly price options, their capacity to fit the true density which is estimated from the underlying asset series and their ability to forecast the future realization of the underlying asset. I found that the decision depends on the purpose of the framework: for pricing purpose, the interpolation techniques would be adequate. However, if the aim is to extract market expectations, the Edgeworth expansion should be used.

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2007
• Where: WCE
• Authors: Amine Bouden
• Keywords: Carlo Simulated Option, Risk Neutral Density, Underlying Asset, WCE 2007, WCE 2008