A polynomial identity testing algorithm must determine whether an input polynomial (given for instance by an arithmetic circuit) is identically equal to 0. In this paper, we show that a deterministic black-box identity testing algorithm for (high-degree) univariate polynomials would imply a lower bound on the arithmetic complexity of the permanent. The lower bounds that are known to follow from derandomization of (low-degree) multivariate identity testing are weaker. To obtain our lower bound it would be sufficient to derandomize identity testing for polynomials of a very specific norm: sums of products of sparse polynomials with sparse coefficients. This observation leads to new versions of the Shub-Smale -conjecture on integer roots of univariate polynomials. In particular, we show that a lower bound for the permanent would follow if one could give a good enough bound on the number of real roots of sums of products of sparse polynomials (Descartes' rule of signs gives such a bo...