Methodology for determining the acceptability of system designs in uncertain environments

In practice, managers often wish to ascertain that a particular engineering design of a production system meets their requirements. The future environment of this design is likely to di¤er from the environment assumed during the design. Therefore it is crucial to …nd out which variations in that environment may make this design unacceptable (unfeasible). This article proposes a methodology for estimating which uncertain environmental parameters are important (so managers can become pro-active) and which combinations of parameter values (scenarios) make the design unacceptable. The proposed methodology combines simulation, bootstrapping, design of experiments, and linear regression metamodeling. This methodology is illustrated through a simulated manufacturing system, including fourteen uncertain parameters of the input distributions for the various arrival and service times. These parameters are investigated through the simulation of sixteen scenarios, selected through a two-level ...

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2011
• Where: EOR
• Authors: Jack P. C. Kleijnen, Henri Pierreval, Jin Zhang
• Keywords: Design, EOR 2011, Parameters, Simulation