In this work we address the uncertainty associated with fiber paths obtained in white matter fiber tractography. This uncertainty, which arises for example from noise and partial volume effects, is quantified using a Bayesian modeling framework. The theory for estimating the probability of a connection between two areas in the brain is presented, and a new model of the local water diffusion profile is introduced. We also provide a theorem that facilitates the estimation of the parameters in this diffusion model, making the presented method simple to implement.