Long-term drivers of broadband traffic in next-generation networks

This paper is concerned with long-term (20+years) forecasting of broadband traffic in next-generation networks. Such long-term approach requires going beyond extrapolations of past traffic data while facing high uncertainty in predicting the future developments and facing the fact that, in 20 years, the current network technologies and architectures will be obsolete. Thus, “order of magnitude” upper bounds of upstream and downstream traffic are deemed to be good enough to facilitate such long-term forecasting. These bounds can be obtained by evaluating the limits of human sighting and assuming that these limits will be achieved by future services or, alternatively, by considering the contents transferred by bandwidth-demanding applications such as those using embedded interactive 3D video streaming. The traffic upper bounds are a good indication of the peak values and, subsequently, also of the future network capacity demands. Furthermore, the main drivers of traffic growth includi...

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2015
• Where: ADT
• Authors: Pavel Loskot, Mohamed A. M. Hassanien, Farsheed Farjady, Marco Ruffini, David B. Payne
• Keywords: ADT 2015, Programming Languages