Menus are a primary control in current interfaces, but there has been relatively little theoretical work to model their performance. We propose a model of menu performance that goes beyond previous work by incorporating components for Fitts' Law pointing time, visual search time when novice, Hick-Hyman Law decision time when expert, and for the transition from novice to expert behaviour. The model is able to predict performance for many different menu designs, including adaptive split menus, items with different frequencies and sizes, and multi-level menus. We tested the model by comparing predictions for four menu designs (traditional menus, recency and frequency based split menus, and an adaptive `morphing' design) with empirical measures. The empirical data matched the predictions extremely well, suggesting that the model can be used to explore a wide range of menu possibilities before implementation. Author Keywords Menus, Hick-Hyman Law, Fitts' Law, performance mod...