Computation with imprecise probabilities

abstract An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measure, real-world probabilities are perceptions of likelihood. Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise, reflecting the bounded ability of human sensory organs, and ultimately the brain, to resolve detail and store information. Imprecision of perceptions is passed on to perceived probabilities. This is why real-world probabilities are, for the most part, imprecise. Peter Walley’s seminal work “Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities,” published in 1991, sparked a rapid growth of interest in imprecise probabilities. Today, we see a substantive literature, conferences, works...

• Type: Conference
• Year: 2008
• Where: IRI
• Authors: Lotfi A. Zadeh
• Keywords: Imprecise Probabilities, Imprecise Probability Distribution, Information Retrieval, IRI 2008, Real-world Probabilities