We study the probability distribution of genomic distance d under the hypothesis of random gene order. We translate the random order assumption into a stochastic method for constructing the alternating color cycles in the decomposition of the bicolored breakpoint graph. For two random genomes of length n, we show that the expectation of n - d is O(1 2 log n). Key words: breakpoint graph, cycle size, probability model, genomic rearrangements, random graph.