The research on offline handwritten Arabic character recognition has received more and more attention in recent years, because of the increasing needs of Arabic document digitization. The variation in Arabic handwriting brings great difficulty in character segmentation and recognition, eg., the subparts (diacritics) of the Arabic character may shift away from the main part. In this paper, a new probabilistic segmentation model is proposed. First, a contour-based over-segmentation method is conducted, cutting the word image into graphemes. The graphemes are sorted into 3 queues, which are character main parts, sub-parts (diacritics) above or below main parts respectively. The confidence for each character is calculated by the probabilistic model, taking recognizer output, geometric confidence and logical constraint into consideration. Then, the global optimization is conducted to find optimal cutting path, taking weighted average of character confidences as objective function. Experimen...