: This paper examines differences between two professional translations into English of the same Spanish newspaper article. Among other explanations for these differences, such as outright errors and free variation, we find a significant number of differences that can be explained on the basis of differing beliefs on the part of the translators about the subject matter. In particular, we attribute translation differences to differing beliefs about the probability of future events and of rational or irrational behavior in response to such probability. We discuss the requirements for a pragmatics-based model of translation that would account for these differences.