A novel method (the V-shaped curve) is presented to predict the failure probability of anisotropic conductive film (ACF) in IC/substrate assemblies. The Poisson function is used to calculate the probability of opening failure in the vertical gap between the pads, while the box and modified box models are used to estimate the probability of bridging failure between the pads in the pitch direction. The opening and bridging probabilities are combined using probability theory to establish four different failure prediction models. The results reveal that the model combining the Poisson function for fewer than six particles per pad with the modified box model provides the most accurate predictions of the failure probability of ACF in IC/substrate assemblies. q 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.