Finding Optimal Targets for Change Agents: A Computer Simulation of Innovation Diffusion

We introduce a diffusion of innovation model based on a network threshold approach. Realistic network and threshold data were gathered regarding the diffusion of new software tools within part of a large organization. Novel model features are a second threshold for innovation rejection and a memory that allows actors to take trends into account. Computer simulations produce expected outcomes, such as the S-shaped diffusion curve, but also diffusion breakdown and oscillations. We define and compute the quality of change agent targets in terms of the impact targeted actors have on the diffusion process. Our simulations reveal considerable variance in the quality of actors as change agent targets. Certain actors can be singled out as especially important to the diffusion process. Small changes in the distribution of thresholds and changes in some parameters, such as the sensitivity for trends, lead to significant changes in the target quality measure. To illustrate these interdependencie...

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2002
• Where: CMOT
• Authors: Dirk Maienhofer, Thomas A. Finholt
• Keywords: Change Agent, Change Agent Target, CMOT 2002, Diffusion