A Robust Bayesian Truth Serum for Small Populations

Peer prediction mechanisms allow the truthful elicitation of private signals (e.g., experiences, or opinions) in regard to a true world state when this ground truth is unobservable. The original peer prediction method is incentive compatible for any number of agents n ≥ 2, but relies on a common prior, shared by all agents and the mechanism. The Bayesian Truth Serum (BTS) relaxes this assumption. While BTS still assumes that agents share a common prior, this prior need not be known to the mechanism. However, BTS is only incentive compatible for a large enough number of agents, and the particular number of agents required is uncertain because it depends on this private prior. In this paper, we present a robust BTS for the elicitation of binary information which is incentive compatible for every n ≥ 3, taking advantage of a particularity of the quadratic scoring rule. The robust BTS is the first peer prediction mechanism to provide strict incentive compatibility for every n ≥ 3 w...

• Type: Journal
• Year: 2012
• Where: AAAI
• Authors: Jens Witkowski, David C. Parkes
• Keywords: AAAI 2012, Incentive Compatibility, Intelligent Agents, Prediction Mechanism, Truth Serum