In deep submicron VLSI circuits, interconnect reliability due to electromigration and thermal effects is fast becoming a serious design issue particularly for long signal lines. This paper presents for the first time a rigorous coupled analysis of AC electromigration that are prevalent in signal lines and thermal effects arising due to Joule heating of the wires. The analysis is applied to study the effect of technology scaling using ITRS data, wherein the effects of increasing interconnect (Cu) resistivity with line dimensions and the effect of a finite barrier metal thickness have been included. Finally, we have also quantified the reliability implications for minimum sized vias in optimally buffered signal nets. Our analysis suggests that for the optimally buffered interconnects, while the maximum current density in the line remains limited by the performance, the current density in the vias exceeds the reliability limits and therefore requires careful consideration in the physi...