Imprecise Probabilities Relating to Prior Reliability Assessments

The paper summarizes the author's experience in dealing with the Dempster-Shafer theory relating to reliability assessments and demonstrates how to make component and system reliability assessments based on the theory of coherent imprecise previsions. The procedure of prior imprecise probability elicitation of components is based on analogical reasoning, and two cases of precise and imprecise probabilities of prototypes are considered. Cases of combining different reliability judgements on the same component are analyzed. The formulae obtained for system reliability assessments allow getting the lower and upper probabilities without the presumption of a conditional independence. An example of system reliability calculating was considered. Keywords. Coherent imprecise probabilities, reliability assessments, belief functions, analogy

• Type: Conference
• Year: 1999
• Where: ISIPTA
• Authors: Igor Kozine
• Keywords: Coherent Imprecise, Imprecise Probabilities, ISIPTA 1999, Mathematics, Reliability Assessments